By E. Lundsgaarde
Combining experiences of demography, weather swap, know-how and innovation, political improvement, new actors in foreign improvement, and worldwide governance frameworks, this publication highlights the main underlying determinants of switch within the African context and key uncertainties concerning the continent's destiny improvement clients.
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Extra info for Africa Toward 2030: Challenges for Development Policy
Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2 Studying Development Futures1 Erik Lundsgaarde Painting a portrait of how an entire continent could change two decades into the future is necessarily a speculative exercise. The approach that this book takes in structuring reflection about the future of Africa is informed by the field of future studies and by scenario analysis methods in particular. The selection of this orientation should not be regarded as a critique of the utility of other approaches in examining questions relevant for the future of development policy.
The scenario construction process itself can be evaluated on the basis of its transparency. In this respect, there is little difference between scenario analysis and other research methods. Obtaining an overview of the steps that have been followed to produce knowledge is a way for external observers to evaluate the validity of the end product. 5 Africa towards 2030 Process Overview Given the limitations that have been identified above with regard to the use of scenarios as standalone research products as well as practical limitations in using scenario analysis to address a broad research question, the material presented in this volume places greater weight on analyses of core drivers of change than on the scenarios for the future presented in Chapter 10.
Reliance on a scenario matrix to background scenario development may require collapsing uncertainties into broader categories for purposes of simplification. The scenario matrix furnishes a basic template to structure narratives of the future. The use of narratives to present scenarios is considered a means of Studying Development Futures 25 summarising complexity in an accessible manner. From a common starting point, alternative narratives provide an unfolding storyline of events that grow more divergent as time progresses.
Africa Toward 2030: Challenges for Development Policy by E. Lundsgaarde