By Michael Brecher
Offering an built-in thought of trouble at either process and nation point, this paintings makes a speciality of 4 interrelated stages of crises: onset, escalation, de-escalation and effect. Systematic wisdom is gifted approximately how those stages spread, utilizing the knowledge of overseas drawback from 1918 to 1988
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F r o m this critique o f the "state o f the art" on crisis it is clear that, despite abundant theorizing a n d research, p e r h a p s b e c a u s e o f the plethora o f definitions, a p p r o a c h e s a n d conceptual frameworks, a 28 widely-accepted theory of interstate cnsis has not yet b e e n d e v e l o p e d . Crisis Domains/Phases As noted early in this chapter, the theory o f crisis to b e p r e s e n t e d in this b o o k is b a s e d u p o n the concept o f four interrelated domains/phases of crisis: onset, escalation, deescalation a n d impact.
In short, this view differs from H e r m a n n ' s in two respects: first, it is values, not goals, CONCEPTS AND MODELS 19 that are u n d e r threat in a crisis situation; a n d s e c o n d , a crisis implies the involvement o f a basic value. (5) T h e m o s t important definitional c h a n g e is the addition o f heightened probability o f war or, m o r e broadly, higher-than-normal likelihood o f involvement in military hostilities, as a defining condition of crisis. In the two cases cited a b o v e , decision-makers thought that this would occur before the threat to values was resolved.
Moreover, heterogeneity CONCEPTS AND MODELS 35 tends to g e n e r a t e misperception, a n d that increases the likelihood o f violence in crisis m a n a g e m e n t . In the largest s e n s e , m o r e differences a m o n g crisis adversaries point to m o r e cleavages over which violence is m o r e likely to occur. G e o s t r a t e g i c s a l i e n c e refers to the location o f an international crisis in terms o f its natural resources, distance from major p o w e r centers, etc. Geostrategic assets vary over time: oil- a n d uranium-producing regions a c q u i r e d greater salience since the 1950s; coal-producing regions b e c a m e less salient.
Crises in World Politics. Theory and Reality by Michael Brecher